Deflated Exultation

Were it not for the flurry of forceful hurricanes that wiped out $10 billion (around a quarter of GDP) in housing, infrastructure, agriculture and other economic activity, Cuba might have been sitting rather pretty (at no less than 6% growth in GDP) during this moment in world history that sees capitalism catch a critical case of cyclical comeuppance.

Alas--due to natural forces wholly unrelated to socialist political economy--Cuba is not in a position to feel schadenfreude; it cannot freely shout that it told you so, let alone offer up its model as an alternative to the creatively destructive capitalists.

So the Cuban political leadership wryly watches the market states run around with their heads cut off (capital punishment?)--yet cannot speak, on the world stage, from a position of objective solvency.

Undaunted defenders of capitalism should be thankful that violent weather muted what otherwise might have stood as a formidable alternative for a world searching for a path forward.

Constituent outreach

Raul Castro speaks to people evacuated and effected by Hurricane Paloma. During his visit he recalled that a hurricane killed three thousand people around the same town of Santa Cruz del Sure, circa 1932.

For this third major tropical cyclone this season, the Cuban authorities evacuated 1.2 million people and not one person died.

Hurricanes blow reforms off the table

With the passing of yet a third disastrous hurricane this season, priorities now focus wholly on recovery efforts. Any economic and political changes that might have seemed possible during last spring's moment of leadership transition are now firmly on the back burner.

"No Ike"

Produce markets remain bare after hurricanes;
price gouging by private sellers rampant.

First came Gustav.

Then came Ike.

Now Cuba is experiencing "No Ike".

As in "No Ike Comida"--a tragicomic play on the words "no hay", or "there is none", as in "there is no food".

In the wake of two hurricanes that flattened crops and ruined recent agricultural yields, produce markets are mostly empty.

International relief donations have been routed to the areas most severely struck by the violent weather systems, leaving Havana--which escaped direct contact from the storms--suffering shortages of food that is normally trucked in from the surrounding rural municipalities.

State run markets have set prices, but checks do not always exist to curb opportunism. Scarcity has lead to price gouging, as its a seller's market. Produce vendors are exploiting the law of supply and demand. The illegally steep food prices are found most often in the semi-private markets, which are reported to have relatively more goods in stock.

The attorney general has promised to be more vigilant and punitive against people who try to profit off of the situation of hardship.

Produce Markets Empty

When hurricanes Gustav and Ike tore through the Cuban countryside last week, they destroyed much of the agricultural harvest.

As a result the "agros"--outdoor vegetable markets--have very little produce in stock, and the prices have increased for what is available. Supply and demand seem to be having an effect on cost.

The state is even selling food donated by Russia at the new higher prices.

Many homes are still without electricity, and are predicted to remain so for up to three months, while the government gets its hands on blockaded materials to repair the "mangled grid".

Thousands of people have lost their homes and are living in schools and other secure state buildings.

24% of Cuba's population evacuated

{{{UPDATE 09/09/08--As Hurricane Ike made a second crossing, battering Cuba, the toll of evacuees rose to over 2.6 million people. That is nearly a quarter of the population that mobilized to secure locations.

It appears to have spared Havana major damage.

Nevertheless the devastation to housing, agriculture and infrastructure is vast.

Today the entire Cuban nation sympathizes with Tina Turner.}}}



In the face of Hurricane Ike, about 1.3 million Cubans and 10 thousand tourists have been evacuated to secure locations on the island. At this point, only 4 people have died.

Last week, Hurricane Gustav ravaged two provinces. During Gustav there were no deaths, despite millions of dollars in damage caused by the 100+ mph winds of the Category 4 cyclone.

There is something to be said about the social use of limited resources, a highly organized society, public control of airwaves, and the prioritization of saving human lives over every other goal.

Presently, Ike appears to be doing its damnedest to impact all fifteen provinces.

Much of the southern coast is flooded.

Ike is headed for Havana.

How to Achieve Zero Deaths in a Hurricane?

It is not a miracle that Cuba avoids that its citizens perish in the hurricanes that regularly pound the island. The entire nation is well organized with systematic routines for withstanding forces of nature.

First, there is the informative phase in which state media and neighborhood committees warn people of the approaching danger.

Second comes the cyclone alert stage in which civil defense teams and neighborhood committees organize specified evacuations of vulnerable populations, locals and tourists alike, to secure locations. These evacuations are obligatory.

Hurricanes destroy Cuba's infrastructure and economy. But take none of its citizens.